Madagascar’s political crisis deepened as soldiers from the elite CAPSAT unit joined youth-led protests, prompting the presidency to warn of a coup attempt. Demonstrators demand reforms after weeks of outages and alleged abuses. Authorities call for dialogue as the UN reports fatalities and the security chain of command faces a critical test.
Madagascar faces its most serious political crisis in years as the elite CAPSAT military unit has sided with Gen Z-led protesters demanding President Andry Rajoelina's resignation. The unit claims control over all armed forces and has installed a new army chief, while the presidency denounces an "illegal attempt to seize power."
The crisis escalated dramatically on October 12, 2025, when the CAPSAT (Camp Capsat) unit — the same elite military faction that brought President Andry Rajoelina to power in 2009 — declared it had assumed control of Madagascar's military command.
The unit announced that "all directives from the Malagasy army—across land, air, and naval divisions—will originate from the CAPSAT headquarters".
In a significant development, General Demosthene Pikulas was installed as the new Chief of Army Staff during a ceremony at military headquarters, with Armed Forces Minister Manantsoa Deramasinjaka Rakotoarivelo expressing his support by stating, "I give him my blessing".
This appointment was made by the mutinying CAPSAT unit rather than through normal government channels.
The National Gendarmerie's Intervention Forces have also distanced themselves from the government, declaring on television that "the use of force and any inappropriate actions against our fellow citizens are forbidden" and confirming their coordination with CAPSAT.
The Protests: Origins and Evolution
The current unrest began on September 25, 2025, with youth-led demonstrations initially sparked by chronic water and electricity shortages affecting the capital, Antananarivo.
The state-owned utility company Jirama has been experiencing prolonged daily power outages, with only about one-third of Madagascar's population having access to electricity.
The movement, organized under the banner "Gen Z Madagascar," drew inspiration from similar youth movements in Kenya, Nepal, and Bangladesh. What started as grievances over basic services quickly expanded into broader demands for political reform, including:
- President Rajoelina's resignation
- An apology for violence against protesters
- Dissolution of the Senate and the electoral commission
- Accountability for alleged corruption and nepotism
According to the United Nations, at least 22 people have died and over 100 have been injured since the protests began, though the Malagasy government disputes these figures.
CAPSAT's Historical Significance
The CAPSAT unit's involvement carries particular weight given its pivotal role in Madagascar's political history. In March 2009, the same unit mutinied against then-President Marc Ravalomanana, leading to his ouster and Rajoelina's rise to power.
The 2009 Camp Capsat mutiny began on March 8, 2009, when 600 soldiers broke out of their military base and seized a main road leading to the capital.
This historical precedent makes the current situation especially significant, as CAPSAT is essentially turning against the leader it helped install 16 years ago.
President Rajoelina has condemned the developments as "an attempt to seize power illegally and by force" that violates "the Constitution and democratic principles". However, his current whereabouts remain uncertain, leading to speculation about whether he has fled the country.
In response to the initial protests, Rajoelina dissolved the government of Prime Minister Christian Ntsay on September 29 and appointed military general Ruphin Zafisambo as the new prime minister on October 6. These measures failed to quell the unrest.
The international community has expressed concern over the escalating situation. Air France and Emirates have suspended flights to Madagascar, while the United Kingdom has advised against all but essential travel to the island. The African Union has urged all parties to exercise calm and restraint.
Madagascar, with a population exceeding 31 million and approximately 80% living in severe poverty, has experienced repeated political instability since gaining independence from France in 1960.
The country ranks among the world's poorest nations and has witnessed several leaders' ousters throughout its history.
The current crisis reflects broader continental challenges facing African youth, including inadequate service delivery, high unemployment, and governance issues.
Similar Gen Z-led movements have successfully brought about political changes in other countries, with Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli resigning in Nepal and Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina fleeing Bangladesh following youth-led uprisings.
What's Next
The immediate test will be whether other military units align with CAPSAT's directives and whether General Pikulas's authority is recognized across the armed forces.
The situation remains fluid, with competing factions claiming control over security operations in the country.
The presidency has called for dialogue as "the only path forward," but the protesters have rejected previous offers for discussions and continue to demand Rajoelina's resignation.
International mediation from the African Union or Southern African Development Community (SADC) may become necessary if the standoff continues.
The outcome of this crisis will likely determine Madagascar's political trajectory and could serve as another example of how Gen Z movements are reshaping African politics through social media-organized protests and demands for systemic change.
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