Guinea Sets September Date for Constitutional Referendum in Key Step Toward Civilian Rule

Background: From Coup to Transition

Guinea has been under military control since September 2021, when Colonel Mamady Doumbouya and his forces ousted President Alpha Condé in a coup, dissolved the constitution, and suspended civilian institutions. 

The junta initially pledged a two-year transition back to civilian rule, with elections expected by the end of 2024. However, that deadline was missed, fueling public frustration and opposition protests.

In July 2024, the military leadership introduced a draft for a new constitution, a prerequisite for organizing elections and re-establishing constitutional order. The upcoming referendum is seen as a crucial step in this transition process.

The Referendum: What’s at Stake

The proposed constitution will be put to a public vote, with key provisions including presidential term limits and rules regarding the eligibility of current junta members to run in future elections. The referendum is intended to replace the military’s transitional charter and lay the legal foundation for legislative and presidential elections, now scheduled for December 2025.

Officials, including Prime Minister Amadou Oury Bah, have emphasized that the referendum is necessary before any national elections can occur, and have promised that a new electoral code will be finalized to ensure a fair process.

Multiple Perspectives

Government Position:  
The junta has presented the referendum as a demonstration of its commitment to returning Guinea to constitutional democracy. In his New Year’s address, Doumbouya described 2025 as a “crucial electoral year” and pledged to restore constitutional order, highlighting the need for strong institutions and unity.

Opposition and Civil Society:  
Opposition parties and activists remain skeptical, citing repeated delays and accusing the junta of using the transition process to consolidate power. 

There are concerns that the new constitution could allow Doumbouya or other junta members to run for president, raising fears of a prolonged military influence in civilian politics. 

Critics also point to the suspension and dissolution of numerous political parties, and the arrest of dissenters, including journalists, as evidence of shrinking civic space and a crackdown on opposition.

International Reactions:  
The international community, including the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), has closely monitored Guinea’s transition, urging a transparent and inclusive process. 

Past referendums in Guinea have been marred by violence and allegations of irregularities, prompting calls for international observers to ensure the credibility of the upcoming vote.

Analysis and Implications

The September referendum will test the junta’s willingness to relinquish power and the resilience of Guinea’s democratic institutions. If conducted transparently and inclusively, it could pave the way for a return to civilian rule and set a precedent for other military-led governments in West Africa. 

However, continued restrictions on opposition parties and civil liberties risk undermining the legitimacy of the process and could lead to further unrest.

The outcome of the referendum will have far-reaching implications for Guinea’s political stability, economic prospects, and international standing. A credible transition could boost investor confidence and unlock international support, while a flawed process may deepen political divisions and prolong the country’s isolation.