Tanzania Bars Opposition Party Chadema from Elections Amid Rising Tensions

The decision, announced by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) on April 12, 2025, comes in the wake of Chadema’s refusal to sign a mandatory electoral code of conduct and the arrest of its leader, Tundu Lissu, on treason charges.

INEC Director Ramadhani Kailima stated that Chadema’s failure to sign the electoral code of conduct disqualified it from fielding candidates in both the general elections and byelections until 2030. 

The code, which was signed by 18 other political parties, is a legal requirement for participation. Chadema boycotted the signing ceremony, citing it as part of its broader campaign for electoral reforms aimed at ensuring free and fair elections.

This development follows the arrest of Chadema’s leader, Tundu Lissu, on charges of treason. Prosecutors allege that Lissu incited rebellion by urging Tanzanians to resist what he described as a flawed electoral process. 

If convicted, he could face the death penalty. Lissu’s detention has drawn widespread criticism from human rights organizations and opposition groups, who view it as part of a broader crackdown on dissent.

Chadema has long been a vocal critic of Tanzania’s ruling party, Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM), which has dominated the country’s politics since independence in 1961. Under President Samia Suluhu Hassan’s leadership, CCM is expected to maintain its grip on power in the upcoming elections.

Initially praised for reversing some of her predecessor John Magufuli’s authoritarian policies, President Hassan now faces allegations of suppressing opposition voices. Activists have pointed to a troubling pattern of arrests, disappearances, and alleged extrajudicial killings targeting opposition figures—claims that her administration denies.

Chadema’s exclusion highlights ongoing tensions over Tanzania’s electoral process. The party has consistently called for constitutional reforms to establish an independent electoral commission and limit CCM’s influence over state institutions.

Political analysts warn that barring Chadema from the elections risks undermining Tanzania’s democratic credibility. “This decision not only disenfranchises millions of voters but also casts doubt on the legitimacy of the entire electoral process,” said Boniface Mwabukusi, President of the Tanganyika Law Society.

International observers have echoed these concerns. Human Rights Watch has condemned Lissu’s arrest as politically motivated, while the European Union and the United States have urged Tanzanian authorities to engage in dialogue with opposition parties to ensure an inclusive election.

Implications for Tanzania and Beyond

1. Democratic Backsliding: Chadema's exclusion raises fears of democratic erosion in Tanzania, mirroring trends seen in other African nations like Uganda and Zimbabwe.
2. Regional Stability: As one of East Africa’s largest economies, political unrest in Tanzania could deter foreign investment and strain regional cooperation.
3. Civil Unrest: Protests have already erupted in Chadema strongholds such as Arusha and Mwanza. Analysts warn that prolonged unrest could destabilize the country further.

With Chadema out of contention, CCM is poised for another sweeping victory in October’s polls. However, this dominance may come at a cost: growing public disillusionment with Tanzania's political system. 

Civil society groups and youth movements are increasingly vocal in their demands for reform, signaling that CCM may face mounting pressure even after securing another term.

Observers will closely monitor how these developments unfold as Tanzania approaches what could be one of its most contentious elections in recent history.